Apple (AAPL) Quantitative Analysis: 247-Indicator Scorecard & Signal Strength
Key Takeaways: Apple Quantitative Scorecard Summary
- Quality Score: A — ROE 147%, ROIC 107%, net profit margin 26.9%, demonstrating exceptional earnings efficiency and capital returns.
- Valuation Score: C+ — P/E 32-35x, EV/EBITDA 24-27x, above historical averages, reflecting market pricing for AI catalysts and earnings stability.
- Technical Signals: Buy — Price above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI neutral-bullish, MACD shows buy signal.
- Risk Metrics: Moderate — Beta 1.11, standard deviation 25.7%, above market average volatility; elevated valuation increases downside risk.
- Composite Score: B+ — Exceptional quality but elevated valuation, suitable for long-term holding rather than short-term chasing. Consider combining with Algo Lab's multi-factor scoring system for real-time evaluation.
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1. Apple Fundamentals Overview (as of July 2026)
Apple is one of the world's largest tech companies by market cap, with businesses spanning hardware (iPhone, Mac, iPad, wearables) and services (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV+). According to Simply Wall St data, Apple's Q3 2026 revenue grew 16% to $109.4B and EPS grew 29% to $2.02, showing strong short-term growth momentum.
Key Financial Data
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $3.7-4.3T | Among highest globally |
| Revenue (TTM) | ~$390B | Steady growth |
| EPS (TTM) | ~$6.65 | Strong earnings |
| Net Profit Margin | 26.9-27.2% | Excellent |
| ROE | 147-151% | Excellent |
| ROIC | 107.1% | Excellent |
| Debt/Equity | 0.79-1.03 | Reasonable |
Sources: StockInvest, Validea, Simply Wall St (June-July 2026)
2. 247-Indicator Scorecard: Multi-Factor Evaluation Framework
Algo Lab's quantitative scoring system covers 247 indicators across five dimensions: quality, valuation, momentum, volatility, and fundamentals. Below is Apple's scoring summary.
1. Quality Dimension — Score: A (90/100)
| Metric | Apple | Industry Avg | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM) | 147-151% | ~15% | S |
| ROIC (TTM) | 107.1% | ~12% | S |
| Net Profit Margin (TTM) | 26.9-27.2% | ~8% | A+ |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 46.9-47.9% | ~30% | A |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 31.9-32.6% | ~12% | A+ |
| Piotroski F-Score | 8/9 | — | A |
Analysis: Apple's quality metrics are nearly all at industry-leading levels. ROE of 147% reflects exceptional capital return efficiency, primarily driven by large-scale share buybacks and strong free cash flow. ROIC of 107% further confirms outstanding capital allocation.
2. Valuation Dimension — Score: C+ (60/100)
| Metric | Apple | Historical Avg | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 32-35x | ~24.6x (10-yr avg) | C |
| PEG (TTM) | 1.2-2.4 | ~1.0 | C+ |
| P/S (TTM) | 8.5-9.7 | ~5.5 | C |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 24.5-26.7 | ~18 | C |
| P/FCF (TTM) | 32.9-34.0 | ~22 | C |
| Dividend Yield | 0.35-0.41% | ~0.7% | D+ |
Analysis: Apple's valuation is at historical highs, reflecting market pricing for AI catalysts and earnings stability. PEG ratio of 1.2-2.4 shows growth is partially priced in but not extreme. According to Beingshivam analysis, if valuation compresses to 10-year average of 24.6x P/E, potential downside is approximately 23%.
3. Momentum Dimension — Score: B (75/100)
| Metric | Apple | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day Moving Average | Price above (Buy) | ✅ |
| 200-day Moving Average | Price above (Buy) | ✅ |
| MACD | Buy signal (0.17) | ✅ |
| RSI (14-day) | 45-68 (neutral-bullish) | ⚠️ |
| Distance from 52-week High | -8% to +10% | ⚠️ |
| 12-Minus-1 Return | 22.8% | ✅ |
Analysis: According to Financhill and Altindex data, Apple's technical indicators overall lean bullish. Price is above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, forming a golden cross pattern. RSI in 45-68 range is neutral-bullish, neither overbought nor oversold.
4. Volatility Dimension — Score: B- (70/100)
| Metric | Apple | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (1-year) | 1.11 | Above market |
| Standard Deviation (1-year) | 25.7% | Above average |
| 6-Month Range | $169-$289 | Significant volatility |
Analysis: Apple's volatility is above market average (Beta >1), reflecting sensitivity to market sentiment and tech sector volatility. Investors with lower risk tolerance should note short-term volatility risk.
5. Fundamentals Dimension — Score: A- (85/100)
| Metric | Apple | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 6.4-16% | ✅ |
| EPS Growth (YoY) | 19.5-29% | ✅✅ |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | ~$136.7B | ✅✅ |
| Cash & Equivalents | ~$54.7B | ✅ |
| Institutional Ownership | 65.3-65.8% | ✅ |
Analysis: Apple's fundamentals are strong, with EPS growth significantly outpacing revenue growth, reflecting operating leverage. Ample free cash flow supports dividends and share buybacks.
3. Signal Strength Assessment: Strat1 & Strat2 Patterns
Algo Lab's two signal strategies (Strat1 Cup Handle, Strat2 Continuation Breakout) assess Apple as follows:
Strat1 (Cup Handle) Signal
| Condition | Apple Status |
|---|---|
| U-shaped consolidation pattern | No clear cup handle recently |
| Neckline breakout | None |
| Volume spike | None |
| Strat1 Signal | None |
Strat2 (Continuation Breakout) Signal
| Condition | Apple Status |
|---|---|
| Uptrend | Long-term uptrend maintained |
| Breakout after consolidation | Recently in trading range |
| Sector support | Tech sector overall constructive |
| Strat2 Signal | Weak |
Conclusion: Apple is not currently triggering Algo Lab's cup handle or continuation breakout signals. Technically in consolidation phase, awaiting clear breakout signal.
4. Risk Assessment
Key Risk Factors
| Risk | Severity | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Elevated valuation | High | P/E 35x above historical average, sensitive to growth slowdown |
| Rising memory costs | Medium | DRAM/NAND price increases compress hardware margins |
| Smartphone demand slowdown | Medium | IDC projects global smartphone shipments may decline 0.9% in 2026 |
| AI strategy execution uncertainty | Medium | Siri updates and AI monetization path unclear |
| Macroeconomic risk | Medium | Rate hikes or economic slowdown affecting consumer electronics |
Downside Scenario Analysis
According to Beingshivam analysis, if Apple's P/E compresses to 10-year average of 24.6x, potential downside is approximately 23%. Triggers for this scenario:
- Revenue growth below 5%
- AI catalysts fail to materialize as expected
- Market sentiment shifts bearish toward tech sector
5. Investment Recommendation Summary
Composite Score: B+ (78/100)
| Dimension | Score |
|---|---|
| Quality | A (90) |
| Valuation | C+ (60) |
| Momentum | B (75) |
| Volatility | B- (70) |
| Fundamentals | A- (85) |
Investment Recommendations
| Investor Type | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Long-term investors | ✅ Can hold, but consider adding at P/E 25-30x |
| Medium/short-term traders | ⚠️ No clear breakout signal, wait |
| Dividend investors | ⚠️ Yield only 0.35-0.41%, not ideal choice |
| Conservative investors | ❌ Elevated valuation increases downside risk |
Algo Lab View: Apple is an exceptional long-term holding, but current valuation is elevated. According to our quantitative scoring system, consider adding at P/E 25-30x (price ~$220-260), rather than chasing at $290+. Use our trading signals system to monitor Apple breakout opportunities in real-time.
6. Frequently Asked Questions
Is Apple's current valuation reasonable?
Apple's P/E (TTM) is around 32-35x, above historical averages, reflecting market pricing for earnings stability and AI catalysts. PEG ratio of 1.2-2.4 suggests elevated but not extreme valuation.
What are Apple's technical signals?
According to Financhill data, AAPL price is above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, forming a technical buy signal. RSI around 45-68 is neutral-bullish. MACD shows buy signal.
Is Apple's dividend safe?
Apple's payout ratio is approximately 12.7%, extremely low, indicating very high dividend safety. Dividend yield of 0.35-0.41% is low but stable, suitable for long-term holding rather than high income seeking.
What are Apple's key risk factors?
Key risks include: (1) elevated valuation, sensitive to growth slowdown; (2) rising memory chip costs compressing margins; (3) global smartphone demand slowdown; (4) AI strategy execution uncertainty.
How to interpret Apple's quantitative score?
Quantitative scores are based on multi-dimensional indicators: quality (ROE, ROIC, margins), valuation (P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA), momentum (price trend, RSI, MACD), and volatility (Beta, standard deviation). Combined scores provide investment decision reference but should not be the sole basis.
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